Inbound Cargo Poised to Hit Post-2022 Highs
The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker projects that monthly cargo volume at major U.S. container ports will reach its highest level in nearly two years during summer 2024, reflecting retailer confidence in sustained consumer demand.
NRF's Jonathan Gold attributes the trend to spending that continues to run ahead of prior-year levels, prompting retailers to restock — though overseas port congestion continues to pressure shipping operations and costs. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett cites four contributing drivers:
- Shifting peak-season timing
- Retailer restocking following pandemic-era inventory drawdowns
- Pre-emptive buying ahead of potential tariff increases on Chinese goods
- Holiday inventory buildup
Volume Metrics
| Month | TEU | Change |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 (actual) | 2.02 million | +4.6% MoM, +13.2% YoY |
| May 2024 (projected) | 2.09 million | +8.3% YoY |
| June 2024 (projected) | 2.11 million | +15.2% YoY |
April's volume was the highest since October 2022. First-half 2024 imports are projected at 12.1 million TEU, roughly 15% above 1H 2023. For comparison, 2023 full-year volume totaled 22.3 million TEU, down 12.8% versus 2022.
Sales Outlook
NRF projects 2024 retail sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023, excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
Implications
For CFOs in retail and consumer goods, the combination of pull-forward buying ahead of tariffs and normal holiday build argues for careful inventory management — elevated port volumes do not necessarily translate into equivalent sell-through. For logistics and supply chain advisors, port congestion at origin remains the binding constraint to monitor even as U.S. volumes climb.